The assumptions are open. The structuring is ours.
NATDAQ's per-country forecasts use two layers of inputs. The first layer — public-source coefficients drawn from FAO, IMF, World Bank, EPA, IUCN, and academic literature — is published below. Sovereigns can challenge any value, substitute their own national figures, and re-run the model.
The second layer — the EPC structuring model that converts these inputs into Tree Note, Conservation Note, and MSW Note pricing — is proprietary to EPC Holdings and made available to sovereign counterparties under engagement.
If you don't agree with a number, replace it. Each row links to FAO, IMF, World Bank, EPA, or peer-reviewed literature.
The EPC structuring model converts inputs into note pricing. The natural asset, the underlying programme, and the data remain with the sovereign.
Treasury, statistics office, or central bank can plug in country-specific data and replicate the model under engagement with EPC.
Conservation Note pricing — disclosed in full.
The Conservation Note structuring constants are disclosed openly so sovereigns can audit, replicate, and stack the model themselves. Tree Note and MSW Note structuring details remain proprietary to EPC and are made available under engagement.
| Constant | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Sovereign-floor price | $100 per hectare per year | EPC structuring (disclosed); auditable line-by-hectare |
| Note tenor | 20 years | EPC structuring (disclosed); stack annually for permanent conservation funding |
| Forestry revenue component | 50% of annual revenue | EPC structuring (disclosed); sustainable forestry within the conserved estate |
| Ecosystem-outcome revenue component | 50% of annual revenue | EPC structuring (disclosed); carbon, ESG, SDG, CSR, water, sustainability |
Forestry — jobs, GDP, rural economy
| Coefficient | Value | Unit | What it drives | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
forestry_jobs_per_usd_million_direct_developing | 750 | jobs_per_usd_million | Direct on-the-ground forestry jobs per USD 1m operational capital, developing-country plantation establishment + management. Reflects low capital cost per planter / silvicultural worker. | FAO 'Creating forestry jobs to boost the economy' (https://www.fao.org/4/i1025e/i1025e02.htm); ILO Green Jobs in the Forest Sector. |
forestry_jobs_per_usd_million_direct_developed | 60 | jobs_per_usd_million | Direct on-the-ground forestry jobs per USD 1m operational capital, developed/middle-income country (mechanised silviculture and harvest). | FAO 'Creating forestry jobs to boost the economy', ibid. |
forestry_indirect_to_direct_jobs_ratio | 1.5 | ratio | Indirect downstream jobs (sawmill, pulp, panel, transport, dry-fibre processing) per direct on-the-ground forestry job. | FAO Li, Mei, Linhares-Juvenal, Cardoso 2022, 'Forest sector contribution to national economies' (https://openknowledge.fao.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/07651741-46ba-478b-8bf2-304d8bb7875b/content), 62-country IO model. |
forestry_gdp_multiplier | 2.3 | ratio | GDP uplift per USD 1 invested over a full rotation. EMDE = 3.5; advanced = 1.5; sovereign-blended mid-case 2.3. Caveat: collapses to ~0 under low institutional efficiency (IMF WP 20/199). | IMF WP 20/199 'The Fiscal Multiplier of Public Investment' (https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WP/2020/English/wpiea2020199-print-pdf.ashx). |
forestry_rural_economy_multiplier | 1.8 | ratio | Rural-economy income multiplier — USD 1 of farmer working capital injection generates this much downstream rural GDP. Higher in low-income agricultural economies (1.6–2.5 in SSA per LCA index). | Haggblade, Hammer & Hazell (1991); IFAD Rural Development Report 2019; World Bank rural diagnostics. |
Conservation — ecosystem services, jobs, note tenor & discount
| Coefficient | Value | Unit | What it drives | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
conservation_jobs_per_1000_ha | 2 | jobs_per_1000_ha | Direct conservation management jobs (rangers + management) per 1,000 ha actively-managed protected area. IUCN target 2.0; current global average 0.14; high-end (Tanzania NP) 7.7. | Appleton et al. 2022, 'Protected area personnel and ranger numbers are insufficient', Nature Sustainability (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-022-00970-0). |
conservation_note_discount_rate | 0.05 | annual_rate | Discount rate applied to ecosystem service revenue stream when computing conservation note NPV. Sovereign-equivalent OECD blended rate. | OECD long-dated sovereign curve average 2024-25. |
Municipal Solid Waste — recoverable value, jobs
| Coefficient | Value | Unit | What it drives | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
msw_recoverable_value_usd_per_tonne_developed | 130 | usd_per_tonne | Blended recoverable value per tonne MSW, developed market (gate fee $62-110 + post-sort commodity value $30-120). Mid-range for OECD. | EREF 2024 Landfill Tipping Fee Survey (US avg $62/t, NE $81); CEWEP Municipal Waste Treatment 2023 (EU avg $110); EPA REI 2020 commodity values. |
msw_recoverable_value_usd_per_tonne_developing | 40 | usd_per_tonne | Blended recoverable value per tonne MSW, developing market (gate fee $2-25 + lower recovery). Mid-range. | Aleluia & Ferrão 2017, Waste Management 69:592–608 (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0956053X1730627X); UNEP GWMO 2024. |
msw_jobs_per_100k_tonnes_year | 60 | jobs_per_100k_tonnes | Direct MSW jobs (collection, sorting, transfer, landfill operation) per 100,000 tonnes/year processed. Range 45-80. | EPA Recycling Economic Information 2020 (https://www.epa.gov/smm/recycling-economic-information-rei-report); ILO 'From Waste to Jobs' 2019. |
msw_indirect_jobs_per_100k_tonnes_year | 250 | jobs_per_100k_tonnes | Indirect MSW jobs per 100,000 tonnes/year — recycling/remanufacturing, EfW downstream, equipment supply. Range 200-360. | Eco-Cycle / ILSR (36 jobs / 10kt recycled downstream); ILO 2025 Decent Work in Recycling brief. |
Cross-cutting — sovereign multiplier
| Coefficient | Value | Unit | What it drives | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
channel_finance_gdp_multiplier | 2.5 | ratio | Sovereign-blended GDP uplift per USD 1 deployed. Range: advanced economies 1.5; EMDE 3.5; sovereign-blended 2.5. CAVEAT: collapses toward zero under low institutional efficiency — sovereign credit reviewers will model the downside themselves. | IMF Fiscal Monitor Oct 2014 Ch.3; IMF WP 20/199 'The Fiscal Multiplier of Public Investment' (https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WP/2020/English/wpiea2020199-print-pdf.ashx). |
Job-production forecast — at a glance
All four asset classes contribute. Per-country totals are the sum of forestry + conservation + MSW jobs scaled to that country's natural-capital programme. The country page shows the resulting employment trajectory against the baseline.
What stays proprietary.
The EPC structuring model — which converts the public inputs above into Tree Note, Conservation Note, and MSW Note pricing, tranching, AiGLe Grade certification, and institutional cashflow allocation — is proprietary to EPC Holdings Ltd and made available to sovereign counterparties under engagement.
Sovereigns engaging with EPC receive the full structuring methodology, the per-instrument cashflow waterfall, the AiGLe analytical framework, and the right to replicate the model internally with their own statistical office and treasury teams. Public disclosure beyond the inputs above would compromise the institutional integrity of the listings.
To engage: contact@natdaq.exchange