Sovereign · Americas · Latin America and the Caribbean

Chile

What NATDAQ unlocks for the country — the asset stays sovereign, participating farmers and communities receive a defined share of the cashflow, and institutions take an equitable share alongside them. Per-asset economics, jobs, GDP uplift, and rural-economy impact across 1, 5, 10 and 25-year horizons.

ISO CHLOECD memberDeveloping market← All sovereigns

Economic finance

$465.2bn

Total NATDAQ-channel financing, 25-year horizon

Finance income

$1.8bn

Annual sovereign cashflow (Conservation + MSW)

Materials

$2.2tn

Cumulative timber value, 25-year horizon

Carbon

$5.7bn

Creditable flux NPV · 2.6 GtCO₂e stock

QG value

26.6m jobs · $1.1tn GDP

Quantitative growth contribution, 25y

Asset class · Conservation

21.6% of Chile's land is under protection.

The Conservation Note is priced at a sovereign-floor of $100/ha/year, written on a 20-year tenor. Stacking a new tranche each year creates permanent conservation funding. Revenue is generated 50% from sustainable forestry within the conserved estate and 50% from ecosystem-service outcomes — carbon, ESG, SDG, CSR, water, and sustainability programmes.

Protected area

160.5k km²

16,045,171 ha

Sovereign floor

$100/ha/yr

Auditable line-by-hectare

Annual sovereign revenue

$1.6bn

Across 16,045,171 ha

Note tenor

20-year

Stack annually for permanent conservation

Note PV per stack

$20bn

One annual issuance

Forestry component

$802.3m

50% of annual revenue

Ecosystem outcome component

$802.3m

50% — carbon · ESG · SDG · CSR · water

Direct management jobs

32.1k

Rangers + protected-area staff

Total jobs (incl. indirect)

48.1k

Including downstream

GDP uplift (25y)

$50bn

Sovereign multiplier applied

Marine PA share

41.2%

Of territorial waters

Asset class · Forestry

184.6k km² of forest. 24.5% of Chile.

Each Tree Note is sized as a defined fraction of the projected harvest value of its species over the rotation period. The majority of note proceeds flows directly to participating farmers as working capital ahead of harvest; the farmer also retains a fixed share of the harvest revenue at maturity. The structure is designed so capital reaches the ground, not administrative overhead.

Top 25 tree species — current and forecast value

Top 25 catalogue: full per-tree fill is researcher commission (see methodology)

Species	Area (km²)	Current annual market	Future market (25y)	Tree Note value	QG market value	Rotation (y)	Data
Radiata pine Pinus radiata	130,000	$14bn	$351bn	$351bn	$807.3bn	25	Deep
Tasmanian blue gum Eucalyptus globulus	35,000	$5.8bn	$144.4bn	$91.9bn	$211.3bn	10	Deep
Lenga Nothofagus pumilio	35,000	$1.3bn	$31.5bn	$31.5bn	$72.5bn	100	Indicative
Coihue Nothofagus dombeyi	12,000	$660m	$16.5bn	$15bn	$34.5bn	90	Indicative
Shining gum Eucalyptus nitens	4,500	$630m	$15.8bn	$10.7bn	$24.6bn	12	Indicative
Roble Nothofagus obliqua	9,000	$585m	$14.6bn	$14.6bn	$33.6bn	80	Indicative
Raulí Nothofagus alpina	6,000	$576m	$14.4bn	$14.4bn	$33.1bn	80	Indicative
Coihue de Magallanes Nothofagus betuloides	9,000	$243m	$6.1bn	$5.1bn	$11.8bn	100	Indicative
Canelo Drimys winteri	9,000	$216m	$5.4bn	$4.7bn	$10.9bn	90	Indicative
Tepa Laureliopsis philippiana	6,000	$216m	$5.4bn	$4.8bn	$11bn	80	Indicative
Ñirre Nothofagus antarctica	14,000	$196m	$4.9bn	$3.9bn	$9bn	90	Indicative
Laurel chileno Laurelia sempervirens	3,500	$182m	$4.6bn	$4.2bn	$9.7bn	80	Indicative
Olivillo Aextoxicon punctatum	5,000	$165m	$4.1bn	$3.8bn	$8.6bn	100	Indicative
Australian blackwood Acacia melanoxylon	1,000	$160m	$4bn	$5.6bn	$12.9bn	35	Indicative
Douglas-fir (plantation) Pseudotsuga menziesii	1,500	$147m	$3.7bn	$3.4bn	$7.7bn	40	Indicative
Ciprés de la cordillera Austrocedrus chilensis	3,000	$120m	$3bn	$3bn	$6.9bn	200	Indicative
Lingue Persea lingue	3,000	$108m	$2.7bn	$2.5bn	$5.7bn	90	Indicative
Quillay / soapbark Quillaja saponaria	5,000	$97.5m	$2.4bn	$3.4bn	$7.8bn	80	Indicative
Monkey-puzzle / pehuén (protected) Araucaria araucana	2,500	$93.8m	$2.3bn	$2.3bn	$5.2bn	250	Indicative
Hualo Nothofagus glauca	2,000	$88m	$2.2bn	$2bn	$4.6bn	80	Indicative
Ciprés de las Guaitecas Pilgerodendron uviferum	3,000	$75m	$1.9bn	$1.8bn	$4.1bn	250	Indicative
Peumo Cryptocarya alba	4,000	$72m	$1.8bn	$1.6bn	$3.7bn	90	Indicative
Alerce (CITES I — protected)CITES II Fitzroya cupressoides	2,500	$50m	$1.3bn	$1.4bn	$3.2bn	500	Indicative
Chilean hazel / avellano Gevuina avellana	2,500	$45m	$1.1bn	$1bn	$2.3bn	60	Indicative
Algarrobo chileno Prosopis chilensis	3,000	$33m	$825m	$750m	$1.7bn	70	Indicative

Current annual market: area × yield × ex-farm price. Future market (25y): sustained-yield total ex-farm value. Tree Note value: sovereign-grade financing the species can support, computed under the EPC structuring model. QG market value: economic contribution to GDP (multiplier applied). CITES II species carry a trade restriction — permit chain-of-custody is required before they can list as freely-tradeable inventory. Per-species areas are planning-grade modelled estimates from national inventory species-composition shares; prices are mid-points of live ranges (tropical hardwood moves 20–40% intra-year on ITTO reports).

Cumulative harvest value (25y)

$2.2tn

Future ex-farm value, all species

Tree Note financing unlocked

$442.9bn

Sovereign-grade institutional capital

Operational capital deployed

$354.3bn

On-the-ground programme spend

Farmer total

$504.9bn

Working capital + harvest revenue

Direct forestry jobs

10.6m

Labour-intensive plantation profile

Indirect jobs

15.9m

Sawmill, pulp, panel, transport

GDP uplift (25y)

$1tn

Sovereign multiplier applied

Forest trend (decade)

+2.03 pp

2010-2020

Carbon · Flux-based, not stock-priced

Chile's forest carbon — the flux is the asset.

Chile's forests hold 2.6 GtCO₂e. The forest is a net sink of 60 MtCO₂e/yr — the channel monetises the incremental sequestration beyond business-as-usual. A carbon credit monetises the annual flux, not the standing stock. We report the recurring credit stream and the one-off stock asset value separately, and price against the CCP-labelled nature-based band — explicitly not the EU ETS compliance price.

Recurring credit revenue (the financeable stream)

Addressable flux

60 MtCO₂e/yr

Incremental sink

Additionality factor

40%

Conservative — only beyond BAU is creditable

Buffer + leakage

−15% / −10%

tropical biome (Verra non-permanence + leakage)

Net creditable flux

18.4 MtCO₂e/yr

≈ 1.0 tCO₂e/ha/yr

Nature credit band

$15–35/tCO₂

CCP-labelled nature-based (NOT EU ETS)

Annual credit revenue

$403.9m

At band mid, net of verification cost

Recurring credit NPV

$5.7bn

25y discounted at 5%

Carbon price as-of

2026-05-01

Refreshed daily when feed connected

Stock asset value (one-off balance-sheet figure — NOT credit income)

Forest carbon stock

2.6 GtCO₂e

Biomass + soil organic carbon

Stock asset value

$6.5bn

Band mid, deeply haircut (stock is not saleable)

EU ETS (macro context only)

€75/tCO₂

Compliance market — not used to value forest credits

Method: creditable flux = (project sequestration − baseline) × (1 − leakage) × (1 − buffer), valued as a discounted multi-year cash-flow (IPCC 2019; Verra VM0048 / AFOLU non-permanence tool; ART-TREES; Griscom et al. 2017). Carbon revenue is one component of the Conservation Note's 50% ecosystem-outcome share, alongside ESG, SDG, CSR, water, and sustainability. Stock data: Chile MMA + CONAF; native forest stock + plantation sink.. Nature-credit price: CCP-labelled nature-based credit band (Verra VM0048 floor + ICVCM premium) (as of 2026-05-01). No live carbon tick is displayed — there is no licence-clean free real-time feed; figures are documented references refreshed on a defined cadence.

Material change · Chile's economic trajectory

With NATDAQ vs without.

Chile's baseline trajectory compounds at 2.5% real GDP growth and 1.0% employment growth — the dashed lines below. The solid lines add the NATDAQ-channel contribution over a 25-year build.

Real GDP, USD trillions

Baseline (2.5% YoY)Baseline + NATDAQ channel

Y25 delta: +$1.1T (+170.5%)

Baseline compounded from 2024 GDP at the country's published real growth rate. NATDAQ contribution is the 25-year cumulative GDP uplift, ramped across the horizon.

Total employment, millions

Baseline (1.0% YoY)Baseline + NATDAQ jobs

Y25 delta: +26.6m (+230.8%)

Baseline employment compounded at the country's published rate. NATDAQ contribution is direct + indirect jobs ramped to steady-state over the horizon. Current agricultural workforce: 0.57m.

Baseline data: World Bank WDI 2024 / national statistical offices. NATDAQ contribution derived from the country's natural-capital programme scale and EPC's structuring model. Refresh against latest national accounts before public quotation. Methodology and full assumption registry on the methodology page.

Asset class · Municipal Solid Waste

7m t of MSW per year. 416 kg per capita.

The MSW Note securitises a defined sovereign-floor share of the recoverable waste-stream revenue — gate fees, post-sort commodities, and energy recovery — discounted to a 25-year tenor. Capital flows into collection, sorting and processing infrastructure; the income stream funds the note.

Annual generation

7m t

Collection rate

99.0%

Recycling rate

4.0%

Recoverable value

$40/t

Blended gate + commodity + energy

Annual recoverable

$280m

MSW Note PV

$2.4bn

25-year tenor, sovereign-grade

Direct jobs

4.2k

Collection, sort, transfer, landfill

Indirect jobs

17.5k

Recycling, EfW, remanufacturing

Quantitative Growth Forecast

What NATDAQ unlocks for Chile.

Aggregate financing, jobs, and GDP uplift across all four asset classes over four time horizons. All figures derive from the same model assumptions and sources documented in the methodology footer.

Horizon	Financing unlocked	Operational capital	Direct jobs	Indirect jobs	Total jobs	GDP uplift	% of country GDP	Farmer total
1-year	$40.1bn	$32.1bn	10.7m	16m	26.6m	$96.7bn	28.43%	$20.2bn
5-year	$110.9bn	$88.8bn	10.7m	16m	26.6m	$259.6bn	76.36%	$101bn
10-year	$199.5bn	$159.6bn	10.7m	16m	26.6m	$463.4bn	136.28%	$202bn
25-year	$465.2bn	$372.2bn	10.7m	16m	26.6m	$1.1tn	316.04%	$504.9bn

Channel finance · Farmer impact

The farmer's share.

Participating farmers and community land-holders receive working capital upfront — at planting — plus a defined harvest revenue share at maturity. The structure deploys capital to the ground, not into administrative overhead.

Working capital upfront

$283.4bn

Paid at planting

Harvest revenue

$221.4bn

Paid at harvest

Lifetime farmer total

$504.9bn

Participating households

330k

Estimated land-holders

Rural-economy spending

$510.2bn

Downstream local consumption

Total jobs (full chain)

26.6m

Post-farming employment

A landing pad for the rural economy.

Traditional agriculture is shrinking under automation, climate pressure, and consolidation. The NATDAQ channel creates skilled rural employment in forestry, conservation management, and waste recovery — work that absorbs displaced farm labour and adds capacity beyond current ag headcount.

Current agricultural workforce

0.57m

6.3% of total employment, 2022

NATDAQ channel — direct jobs (25y)

10.7m

1871% of current ag workforce

NATDAQ channel — total jobs (25y)

26.6m

4674% of current ag workforce

Reading this

Chile's on-farm workforce of 0.57m faces structural decline. The channel does not displace those workers — it offers a credible re-employment path in plantation establishment, silviculture, ranger management, sorting infrastructure, and processing. ILO modelled.

Returns benchmark · Profit, not cost

Sustainability through profit, not cost.

Institutions participating in the Chile Tree Note take an equitable share of the cashflow — alongside participating farmers and the sovereign. The cashflow share sits against the same return benchmarks as a corporate equity allocation, and uniquely also delivers sustainability metrics, brand value, and shareholder value through profit, not through the cost line.

Benchmark	Annualised return	Source
NATDAQ Tree Note (this country, sovereign-grade)	6.2%	Annualised investor cashflow share
Tesco PLC — operating margin on turnover	4.9%	FY25
Tesco PLC — Return on Capital Employed	14.6%	FY24/25
US broad market — Return on Invested Capital	10.1%	Damodaran Jan 2026
US Paper / Forest Products — ROIC	10.4%	Damodaran Jan 2026
US Farming / Agriculture — ROIC	7.7%	Damodaran Jan 2026
US REITs (yield comparator) — ROIC	3.7%	Damodaran Jan 2026
Sustainable timber funds — historical net IRR	5.9%	GIIN benchmark

ROCE / ROIC reflect each benchmark's published return on capital. The NATDAQ Tree Note figure is the projected annualised investor cashflow share — institutions participate in an equitable share of the cashflow, alongside the participating farmers and the sovereign. Past performance is not indicative of future results; figures are illustrative for institutional discussion.

Cross-channel · Litdaq

Litigation finance channel.

Chile is rated developing on the EPC Litdaq market-depth scale. The cross-channel position lets a sovereign issuer monetise commercial litigation cashflows through the same EPC institutional framework as natural-capital notes.

Market depth

Developing

Legal services / GDP

0.9%

Notes

Mining arbitration channel.

The only venue that does this

No other exchange coordinates this trade and data.

Sovereign natural-capital programmes have historically been financed bilaterally — bank by bank, project by project, with no common pricing surface and no institutional secondary market. NATDAQ is the only venue that lists sovereign-grade conservation, forestry, MSW, and litigation finance instruments on a single coordinated, AiGLe-graded surface — with a published per-country dataset, a structuring model that links natural assets to financeable cashflows, and a consistent institutional disclosure standard.

The asset stays on the sovereign balance sheet. The data stays sovereign. Only the cashflow rights are securitised. That coordination is the product.

Forecastable note value

Project Chile Tree Note value over time →

How a Chile Tree Note appreciates across rotation cycles, with biological mass accretion and harvest-cycle revenue marks. Year-by-year projection on a separate page to keep this brief tight.

Open projection →

Approach & sources

How the figures are produced

All financing, jobs and GDP figures are produced by the NATDAQ structuring model — proprietary to EPC Holdings — applied to the country's natural-capital dataset. The model derives Tree Note, Conservation Note, and MSW Note pricing from species, biome, and waste-stream characteristics, and projects on-the-ground capital deployment, sustained employment, and GDP uplift over the note tenor.

Notes are AiGLe-graded prior to listing. The senior sovereign tranche of every NATDAQ-listed instrument is graded under AiGLe's published Four-Pillar analytical framework.

Primary input sources

Forest area & change: FAO Global Forest Resources Assessment 2020.
Protected area share: World Bank / Protected Planet (UNEP-WCMC).
MSW: World Bank What a Waste 2.0; Eurostat for European countries.
Sectoral employment intensity: FAO Forest Sector Outlook; ILO sectoral briefs.
Ecosystem-service value: de Groot et al. 2012; Costanza et al. 2014.
Sovereign multiplier: IMF Fiscal Monitor / IMF WP 20/199.

Per-species market values are indicative ranges from ITTO and FAO sectoral data. Country-specific figures are refined under EPC's structuring engagement prior to issuance. Full structuring methodology and the NATDAQ rulebook are available to qualified institutional counterparties under NDA.

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